Women's Big Bash League (WBBL) · Hurricanes Women v Renegades Women
Hobart Hurricanes v Melbourne Renegades Match prediction
Chance of winning, from 20,000 simulations of this match. About 5% of simulations were washed out and are left out of these figures.
- leggully's model makes Hobart Hurricanes favourites to beat Melbourne Renegades in the WBBL on 4 November 2026, winning 59% of 20,000 simulated matches.
- Batting first, Hobart Hurricanes would be expected to score about 154 and Melbourne Renegades about 146 in this WBBL match.
- Hobart Hurricanes are more likely to out-hit Melbourne Renegades for sixes (59% to 25%, level the rest of the time), with about 3.1 sixes expected to 2.0.
- The model expects about 273 runs in Hobart Hurricanes v Melbourne Renegades (both innings), with 27 fours and 5 sixes - 32 boundaries in all.
- Hobart Hurricanes have the stronger batting line-up, by about 3.3 runs an innings.
- Hobart Hurricanes have the stronger bowling attack, by about 3.7 runs an innings.
- Melbourne Renegades have the stronger death bowling, by about 0.9 runs an innings.
Likely scores and sixes
What each side would be expected to score batting first against this opposition's bowling attack, and how many sixes it's expected to hit. A chasing side usually ends with less, because it stops once it passes the target.
| Team | Batting first | 8 in 10 between | Expected fours | Expected sixes | Hits more sixes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart Hurricanes | 154 | 122–185 | 14.0 | 3.1 | 59% |
| Melbourne Renegades | 146 | 114–178 | 12.8 | 2.0 | 25% |
How to read this table
- Batting first
- The side's typical total if it bats first: its batting rating against the other side's bowling rating, starting from the par score at Ninja Stadium (151). The par is what an average side would expect to make batting first there, from the Women's Big Bash League's scoring this season and how the ground usually plays compared with others. A couple of runs are added for the home side.
- 8 in 10 between
- In 8 simulated matches out of 10, the batting-first total falls in this range. T20 scores swing a lot, so it's wide.
- Expected fours
- The average number of fours the side hits in the match, batting first or second.
- Expected sixes
- The average number of sixes the side hits in the match, batting first or second.
- Hits more sixes
- How often this side hits more sixes than the other. The two don't add up to 100% because the teams hit the same number 16% of the time.
The higher of the two scores in the match is typically around 151, and there's a 52% chance that someone makes 150 or more. It can be lower than the batting-first figures because a successful chase stops just past the target.
Match totals
Both teams' innings added together: total runs, fours, sixes and boundaries in the match. These come from the same 20,000 simulations, so a chase that's won early counts only the runs and boundaries actually scored.
| Total | Expected | Middle | 8 in 10 between | Chance of going over | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 273 | 274 | 221–325 | over 254.5 · 68% | over 274.5 · 50% | over 294.5 · 30% |
| Fours | 26.8 | 27 | 19–35 | over 23.5 · 68% | over 27.5 · 44% | over 31.5 · 23% |
| Sixes | 5.1 | 5 | 2–8 | over 3.5 · 73% | over 5.5 · 41% | over 7.5 · 16% |
| Boundaries (4s + 6s) | 31.9 | 32 | 23–42 | over 27.5 · 72% | over 32.5 · 45% | over 37.5 · 22% |
How to read this table
- Expected
- The average across all the simulated matches.
- Middle
- The middle value: half the simulated matches finished above it and half below.
- 8 in 10 between
- In 8 simulated matches out of 10 the total landed in this range.
- Chance of going over
- How often the total went over each line. For example, over 274.5 · 50% means 50% of simulated matches had more than 274.5 runs.
- Boundaries
- Fours and sixes added together.
Washed-out matches are left out. Totals depend heavily on who bats first and how big the first innings is, so the ranges are wide. Treat these as chances, not certainties.
How the teams compare
Each side's predicted XI for this match, rated in runs per innings against the average Women's Big Bash League side. Positive is better than average, negative is worse. These ratings are what decides the win chances above.
| Rating | Hobart Hurricanes | Melbourne Renegades | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.8 | −6.1 | Hobart Hurricanes +6.9 |
| Batting | −1.1 | −4.4 | Hobart Hurricanes +3.3 |
| Bowling | +2.0 | −1.7 | Hobart Hurricanes +3.7 |
| Death bowling | +0.3 | +1.2 | Melbourne Renegades +0.9 |
| Bowling options | 10 | 9 | |
| Sixes per innings | 3.5 | 2.7 |
How to read this table
- Overall
- Batting and bowling added together: roughly how many runs a match better (+) or worse (−) the side is than an average team.
- Batting
- Runs per innings the XI adds compared with an average line-up, from how fast its players score and how often they get out. The top order counts most because they face the most balls.
- Bowling
- Runs per innings the attack saves compared with an average attack, with the 20 overs shared out the way a captain would. Wickets count too, turned into the runs they're worth.
- Death bowling
- The part of the bowling rating from overs 17–20. It's already included in Bowling.
- Bowling options
- Genuine bowlers in the XI: players with at least 6 overs in the recent data. With fewer than five, part-timers bowl the rest and it costs runs.
- Sixes per innings
- Sixes the XI is expected to hit against an average attack. Against this opponent it can be higher or lower, as in the table above.
- Edge
- Which side is better on that rating, and by how many runs.
Predicted XIs
The strongest XI each squad allowed when the prediction was made, with at most three overseas players. Players are in order of batting rating, which isn't necessarily the order they'll bat in. Underneath is how the model shares out the 20 overs. These are the model's picks, not team announcements.
Hobart Hurricanes
- Lizelle Lee OS SR 134
- Chinelle Henry OS SR 134 · econ 7.44
- Chamari Athapathu OS SR 123 · econ 6.80
- Nicola Carey SR 123 · econ 7.94
- Heather Graham SR 111 · econ 7.35
- Lauren Smith SR 108 · econ 6.78
- Callie Wilson SR 108 · econ 7.99
- Hayley Silver-Holmes SR 106 · econ 7.47
- Ella Hayward SR 107 · econ 7.85
- Amy Smith SR 106 · econ 7.05
- Molly Strano SR 105 · econ 7.46
- Powerplay
- Molly Strano 3, Lauren Smith 2, Chamari Athapathu 1
- Middle overs
- Chamari Athapathu 1, Amy Smith 4, Molly Strano 1, Heather Graham 4
- Death overs
- Chamari Athapathu 2, Lauren Smith 2
Rest of the squad: Ruth Johnston, Linsey Smith, Rachel Trenaman, Kate Pelle
Melbourne Renegades
- Georgia Wareham SR 134 · econ 6.85
- Hayley Matthews OS SR 122 · econ 7.31
- Nicole Faltum SR 118
- Chloe Tryon OS SR 123 · econ 7.42
- Deandra Dottin OS SR 115 · econ 7.92
- Courtney Webb SR 113 · econ 8.02
- Sophie Molineux SR 114 · econ 6.97
- Tess Flintoff SR 114 · econ 7.68
- Tayla Vlaeminck SR 109 · econ 7.73
- Lucy Wilson SR 109
- Milly Illingworth SR 106 · econ 7.34
- Powerplay
- Milly Illingworth 3, Georgia Wareham 2, Sophie Molineux 1
- Middle overs
- Sophie Molineux 3, Hayley Matthews 2, Tess Flintoff 4, Chloe Tryon 1
- Death overs
- Georgia Wareham 2, Hayley Matthews 2
Rest of the squad: Sara Kennedy, Olivia Porter, Annie Wikman, Sophie Reid
How to read these teams
- SR
- The player's expected strike rate (runs per 100 balls), from recent women's T20 cricket.
- econ
- Expected runs conceded per over, shown for genuine bowlers.
- WK / OS
- Wicketkeeper / overseas player.
- Overs
- Overs each bowler gets in each phase: the best death bowlers bowl overs 17–20 (2 each at most), then the powerplay (overs 1–6) and middle overs (7–16) are filled, with no one bowling more than 4.
How this prediction is made
- Player ratings come from 496,658 balls of women's T20 cricket over the last 4 years (2,195 matches). Recent matches and stronger competitions count for more.
- The match is played 20,000 times. Each side's score is drawn at random around its likely score, the side batting second stops once it passes the target, and sixes depend on the batters, the bowlers and the size of the innings.
- The ground sets the starting point: a par of 151 at Ninja Stadium.
- What it doesn't know: the pitch on the day, the weather, the toss, and any team news after 1 Nov 2026, when this prediction was made.
Full stats for Hobart Hurricanes v Melbourne Renegades (head-to-head, form, squads, matchups, venue) · Women's Big Bash League predictions (title chances, every team)
This prediction was made on 1 Nov 2026, before the match, and is not updated afterwards. The percentages are chances, not certainties. These are statistical predictions for interest, not betting advice.