Women's Big Bash League · Predictions
Women's Big Bash League 2026 predictions
Who wins, who finishes runner-up, who hits the most sixes and who posts the biggest score, from 20,000 simulations of the whole season, with every team rated on its batting, its bowling and its death bowling.
Updated 11 Nov 2026, including the 8 results played so far.
- leggully's model makes the Sydney Thunder favourites to win the Women's Big Bash League 2026, taking the title in 38% of 20,000 simulated seasons.
- The Sydney Sixers are the most likely runners-up (27%), and the most likely final is Sydney Sixers v Sydney Thunder (29%).
- The Sydney Thunder are predicted to hit the most sixes in the Women's Big Bash League 2026 (56% chance, about 36 sixes across the season).
- The Sydney Sixers are the side most likely to post the highest innings of the Women's Big Bash League 2026 (26%); the competition's top score is expected to be around 213.
- The strongest batting line-up belongs to the Sydney Thunder (+11.1 runs an innings against an average side), the strongest bowling attack to the Sydney Sixers (+4.4 runs saved) and the best death bowling to the Melbourne Renegades (+1.0 runs saved in overs 17–20).
Title chances
The whole season is played out 20,000 times: every league match still to come, then the finals (the Knockout between 3rd and 4th, the Challenger between 2nd and the Knockout winner, and the Final, hosted by the team that finishes top). This table counts how often each team ended up where. The percentages are chances, not certainties: a team with a 30% chance still misses out on the title seven seasons in ten.
| Team | Win | Runner-up | Make final | Top 4 | Minor premiers | Avg finish | Exp pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Thunder |
38%
|
26% | 64% | 90% | 38% | 2.4 | 13.6 |
| Sydney Sixers |
29%
|
27% | 56% | 87% | 31% | 2.6 | 13.0 |
| Perth Scorchers |
13%
|
19% | 32% | 73% | 15% | 3.5 | 11.8 |
| Adelaide Strikers |
12%
|
16% | 28% | 66% | 11% | 3.8 | 11.1 |
| Hobart Hurricanes |
2.7%
|
4.3% | 7.1% | 25% | 1.2% | 5.8 | 8.1 |
| Melbourne Stars |
2.6%
|
4.4% | 7.0% | 27% | 1.4% | 5.5 | 8.4 |
| Brisbane Heat |
1.5%
|
2.7% | 4.2% | 18% | 0.7% | 6.1 | 7.2 |
| Melbourne Renegades |
1.1%
|
2.1% | 3.2% | 15% | 0.5% | 6.4 | 6.8 |
How to read this table
- Win
- How often the team won the Final. The bar compares each team with the favourite.
- Runner-up
- How often the team reached the Final and lost it.
- Make final
- Win and Runner-up added together: how often the team played in the Final.
- Top 4
- How often the team finished in the top four of the league table, the places that go into the finals.
- Minor premiers
- How often the team finished top of the league table, which means hosting the Final.
- Avg finish
- The team's average league position across all the simulations (1 = top).
- Exp pts
- Average league points: 2 for a win and 1 for a no result, including points already won.
Teams level on points are split by run difference, which stands in for net run rate. Tap a column heading to sort by it.
Team ratings
Each side's strongest XI (see predicted XIs) is compared with the average Women's Big Bash League side, in runs per innings. A batting rating of +5 means the line-up should score about 5 more runs than an average line-up against the same attack, and a bowling rating of +5 means the attack should concede about 5 fewer runs. Wickets count too, turned into the runs they're worth.
| Team | Overall | Batting | Bowling | Death bowling | Bowling options | Sixes per innings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Thunder | +11.9 | +11.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 | 8 / 10 | 3.8 |
| Sydney Sixers | +6.5 | +2.1 | +4.4 | −1.2 | 9 / 12 | 2.8 |
| Perth Scorchers | +1.7 | +1.0 | +0.7 | +0.4 | 9 / 11 | 2.9 |
| Adelaide Strikers | −0.3 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −1.1 | 7 / 8 | 2.2 |
| Hobart Hurricanes | −1.4 | −2.0 | +0.6 | +0.1 | 9 / 12 | 3.5 |
| Melbourne Stars | −3.9 | −6.5 | +2.7 | +0.9 | 6 / 9 | 2.5 |
| Brisbane Heat | −6.2 | −1.0 | −5.2 | −0.9 | 6 / 7 | 2.6 |
| Melbourne Renegades | −8.3 | −5.3 | −3.0 | +1.0 | 9 / 10 | 2.6 |
How to read this table
- Overall
- Batting and bowling added together: roughly how many runs a match better (+) or worse (−) the side is than an average Women's Big Bash League team. The table is in this order.
- Batting
- Runs per innings the XI adds compared with an average line-up. Players are rated on how fast they score and how often they get out. The top order counts most because they face the most balls.
- Bowling
- Runs per innings the attack saves compared with an average attack, with the 20 overs shared out the way a captain would. If a side doesn't have five genuine bowlers in its XI, part-timers bowl the rest, which costs runs. That's how a lack of bowling depth shows up.
- Death bowling
- The part of the bowling rating that comes from overs 17–20, bowled by the side's best death bowlers (2 overs each at most). It's already included in Bowling.
- Bowling options
- Genuine bowlers in the predicted XI / in the whole squad: players with at least 6 overs in the recent data. More options in the squad means injuries and bad days are easier to cover.
- Sixes per innings
- How many sixes the XI is expected to hit in an innings against an average attack.
Each phase is judged on its own (powerplay overs 1–6, middle overs 7–16, death overs 17–20), because conceding 8 an over is good at the death and poor in the middle.
Most sixes and highest innings
In each simulated season every innings gets a score and a number of sixes, so we can see which team ends the season with the most sixes and which one posts the single highest innings. Sixes depend on the batters' six-hitting, on how often the opposition's bowlers get hit for six, and on how big the innings is. Big totals mostly come batting first, because a chase stops once the target is passed.
| Team | Most sixes | Expected sixes | Highest innings | Typical best score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Thunder | 56% | 36 | 25% | 196 |
| Sydney Sixers | 26% | 32 | 26% | 196 |
| Hobart Hurricanes | 9.9% | 28 | 8.2% | 183 |
| Brisbane Heat | 2.8% | 24 | 7.7% | 184 |
| Perth Scorchers | 2.4% | 23 | 11% | 187 |
| Melbourne Stars | 1.0% | 21 | 5.2% | 192 |
| Adelaide Strikers | 0.9% | 21 | 13% | 189 |
| Melbourne Renegades | 0.6% | 19 | 4.5% | 179 |
How to read this table
- Most sixes
- How often the team finished the season with more sixes than anyone else. If two teams tie, the season is split between them. The table is in this order.
- Expected sixes
- The team's average number of sixes across the whole season, finals included.
- Highest innings
- How often the team posted the single highest score of the whole competition.
- Typical best score
- The team's highest score of the season in a typical (middle) simulation.
Teams that go deep into the finals play more matches, so they get more chances at both. Washed-out matches (about 5% of games) count for nothing here.
Match predictions
Each match gets its own prediction a few days before it's played, when its stats preview is published: who's likely to win, likely scores, sixes and both predicted XIs. Once it's made it doesn't change, so after the match you can see how it compared with what happened. So far the favourite has won 4 of 6 completed matches.
| Match | Date | Favourite | Chance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Heat v Sydney Sixers | 30 Oct 2026 | Sydney Sixers | 62% | Sydney Sixers won by 4 wickets ✓ |
| Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Stars | 31 Oct 2026 | Melbourne Stars | 54% | Adelaide Strikers won by 21 runs ✗ |
| Perth Scorchers v Melbourne Renegades | 31 Oct 2026 | Perth Scorchers | 55% | Perth Scorchers won by 9 wickets ✓ |
| Sydney Thunder v Brisbane Heat | 1 Nov 2026 | Sydney Thunder | 68% | Sydney Thunder won by 6 wickets ✓ |
| Sydney Sixers v Hobart Hurricanes | 1 Nov 2026 | Sydney Sixers | 58% | Sydney Sixers won by 87 runs ✓ |
| Melbourne Stars v Perth Scorchers | 2 Nov 2026 | Melbourne Stars | 55% | Perth Scorchers won by 15 runs ✗ |
| Hobart Hurricanes v Melbourne Renegades | 4 Nov 2026 | Hobart Hurricanes | 59% | To be played |
| Adelaide Strikers v Brisbane Heat | 5 Nov 2026 | Adelaide Strikers | 54% | To be played |
| Sydney Thunder v Perth Scorchers | 5 Nov 2026 | Sydney Thunder | 60% | To be played |
| Melbourne Stars v Sydney Sixers | 6 Nov 2026 | Sydney Sixers | 54% | To be played |
| Melbourne Renegades v Adelaide Strikers | 7 Nov 2026 | Adelaide Strikers | 55% | To be played |
| Brisbane Heat v Hobart Hurricanes | 7 Nov 2026 | Too close to call | 51% | To be played |
| Sydney Sixers v Sydney Thunder | 8 Nov 2026 | Sydney Thunder | 54% | To be played |
| Perth Scorchers v Melbourne Stars | 8 Nov 2026 | Perth Scorchers | 58% | To be played |
| Hobart Hurricanes v Adelaide Strikers | 10 Nov 2026 | Too close to call | 52% | To be played |
| Perth Scorchers v Sydney Thunder | 11 Nov 2026 | Sydney Thunder | 58% | To be played |
| Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat | 12 Nov 2026 | Melbourne Stars | 54% | To be played |
| Melbourne Renegades v Sydney Sixers | 12 Nov 2026 | Sydney Sixers | 62% | To be played |
| Hobart Hurricanes v Brisbane Heat | 14 Nov 2026 | Hobart Hurricanes | 57% | To be played |
| Perth Scorchers v Adelaide Strikers | 14 Nov 2026 | Perth Scorchers | 54% | To be played |
How to read this table
- Favourite
- The side the model gave the better chance of winning when the prediction was made. If neither side had more than 52.5%, the match is too close to call.
- Chance
- The favourite's chance of winning (washouts left out).
- Result
- What happened, once the match is in the database: ✓ the favourite won, ✗ the other side did.
A favourite with a 60% chance should still lose about 4 times in 10, so judge the predictions over a whole season, not one match.
Predicted XIs
The ratings above come from these sides: the strongest XI each squad allows, with at most 3 overseas players and a wicketkeeper. Players are listed in order of batting rating, which isn't necessarily the order the team will bat in. Underneath is how the model shares out the 20 overs.
Sydney Thunder
- Laura Kimmince SR 174 · econ 7.14
- Phoebe Litchfield SR 142
- Heather Knight OS SR 129 · econ 7.96
- Georgia Voll SR 133 · econ 7.78
- Anika Learoyd SR 120
- Nadine de Klerk OS SR 120 · econ 8.04
- Tahlia Wilson WK SR 110
- Lucy Finn SR 111 · econ 8.00
- Lauren Bell OS SR 106 · econ 6.69
- Jemma Barsby SR 107 · econ 7.66
- Hannah Darlington SR 101 · econ 8.02
- Powerplay
- Lauren Bell 2, Jemma Barsby 3, Laura Kimmince 1
- Middle overs
- Laura Kimmince 3, Hannah Darlington 4, Lucy Finn 3
- Death overs
- Lauren Bell 2, Georgia Voll 2
Rest of the squad: Sam Bates, Hasrat Gill, Nicola Hancock, Claire Moore
Sydney Sixers
- Ellyse Perry SR 133 · econ 7.61
- Ashleigh Gardner SR 137 · econ 7.65
- Sophia Dunkley OS SR 131 · econ 7.99
- Amelia Kerr OS SR 121 · econ 7.12
- Maitlan Brown SR 114 · econ 7.37
- Sarah Coyte SR 113 · econ 7.83
- Grace Lyons WK SR 110
- Frankie Nicklin SR 109
- Elsa Hunter OS SR 108 · econ 7.21
- Caoimhe Bray SR 110 · econ 7.17
- Erin Burns SR 105 · econ 7.35
- Powerplay
- Caoimhe Bray 3, Maitlan Brown 3
- Middle overs
- Elsa Hunter 4, Erin Burns 4, Caoimhe Bray 1, Amelia Kerr 1
- Death overs
- Amelia Kerr 2, Ashleigh Gardner 2
Rest of the squad: Alice Capsey, Lauren Cheatle, Courtney Sippel, Eva Ragg
Perth Scorchers
- Beth Mooney WK SR 130
- Sophie Devine OS SR 130 · econ 7.42
- Fatima Sana OS SR 130 · econ 7.39
- Freya Kemp OS SR 134 · econ 7.87
- Katie Mack SR 110
- Ruby Strange SR 109 · econ 8.06
- Ebony Hoskin SR 106 · econ 7.99
- Chloe Ainsworth SR 108 · econ 6.86
- Lilly Mills SR 103 · econ 7.66
- Taneale Peschel SR 102 · econ 8.06
- Alana King SR 103 · econ 7.33
- Powerplay
- Chloe Ainsworth 3, Sophie Devine 3
- Middle overs
- Alana King 2, Freya Kemp 4, Ebony Hoskin 4
- Death overs
- Lilly Mills 2, Alana King 2
Rest of the squad: Amy Edgar, Chloe Piparo, Mikayla Friday, Ines McKeon
Adelaide Strikers
- Laura Wolvaardt OS SR 126
- Maia Bouchier OS SR 126
- Bridget Patterson WK SR 123
- Madeline Penna SR 115 · econ 7.66
- Tahlia McGrath SR 115 · econ 8.08
- Amanda Wellington SR 129 · econ 6.87
- Ellie Johnston WK SR 123
- Eleanor Larosa SR 109 · econ 7.60
- Megan Schutt SR 112 · econ 7.21
- Darcie Brown SR 108 · econ 7.32
- Sophie Ecclestone OS SR 114 · econ 6.72
- Powerplay
- Megan Schutt 3, Amanda Wellington 2, Darcie Brown 1
- Middle overs
- Eleanor Larosa 4, Sophie Ecclestone 2, Darcie Brown 3, Tahlia McGrath 1
- Death overs
- Amanda Wellington 2, Sophie Ecclestone 2
Rest of the squad: Emma de Broughe, Anesu Mushangwe, Ella Wilson, Maggie Clark
Hobart Hurricanes
- Lizelle Lee OS SR 134
- Chinelle Henry OS SR 134 · econ 7.40
- Chamari Athapaththu OS SR 123 · econ 6.81
- Nicola Carey SR 122 · econ 8.05
- Heather Graham SR 111 · econ 7.46
- Callie Wilson SR 109 · econ 8.06
- Ella Hayward SR 108 · econ 8.07
- Lauren Smith SR 111 · econ 6.98
- Kate Pelle WK SR 105
- Amy Smith SR 107 · econ 7.14
- Molly Strano SR 104 · econ 7.80
- Powerplay
- Chinelle Henry 3, Molly Strano 3
- Middle overs
- Chamari Athapaththu 2, Amy Smith 4, Lauren Smith 4
- Death overs
- Chamari Athapaththu 2, Heather Graham 2
Rest of the squad: Ruth Johnston, Hayley Silver-Holmes, Linsey Smith, Rachel Trenaman
Melbourne Stars
- Meg Lanning SR 128
- Annabel Sutherland SR 132 · econ 7.08
- Dani Gibson OS SR 130 · econ 8.02
- Amy Jones WK OS SR 121
- Rhys McKenna SR 120 · econ 7.95
- Indigo Noble SR 110
- Zoe Samuel SR 110
- Tia Davidge SR 110
- Kim Garth SR 105 · econ 6.79
- Charlie Dean OS SR 110 · econ 6.77
- Sophie Day SR 100 · econ 7.54
- Powerplay
- Kim Garth 3, Sophie Day 2, Charlie Dean 1
- Middle overs
- Charlie Dean 3, Kim Garth 1, Annabel Sutherland 2, Rhys McKenna 4
- Death overs
- Sophie Day 2, Annabel Sutherland 2
Rest of the squad: Maisy Gibson, Georgia Prestwidge, Carly Leeson, Naomi Stalenberg
Brisbane Heat
- Grace Harris SR 146 · econ 8.01
- Orla Prendergast OS SR 122 · econ 6.85
- Charli Knott SR 123 · econ 7.47
- Georgia Redmayne SR 113
- Annie O'Neil SR 130
- Yastika Bhatia WK OS SR 116
- Lily Bassingthwaighte SR 110 · econ 8.09
- Lucy Hamilton SR 110
- Bonnie Berry SR 110
- Grace Parsons SR 108 · econ 7.56
- Sarah Glenn OS SR 108 · econ 7.13
- Powerplay
- Orla Prendergast 2, Charli Knott 3, Sarah Glenn 1
- Middle overs
- Sarah Glenn 3, Grace Parsons 4, Charli Knott 1, Grace Harris 2
- Death overs
- Orla Prendergast 2, Grace Harris 2
Rest of the squad: Lucinda Bourke, Sianna Ginger, Mikayla Wrigley, Cathy White
Melbourne Renegades
- Georgia Wareham SR 136 · econ 6.91
- Hayley Matthews OS SR 122 · econ 7.37
- Nicole Faltum WK SR 114
- Deandra Dottin OS SR 115 · econ 8.07
- Chloe Tryon OS SR 122 · econ 7.43
- Courtney Webb SR 111 · econ 8.09
- Tayla Vlaeminck SR 110 · econ 7.04
- Lucy Wilson SR 110
- Sophie Molineux SR 111 · econ 7.05
- Sara Kennedy SR 109 · econ 7.76
- Tess Flintoff SR 107 · econ 7.70
- Powerplay
- Tayla Vlaeminck 3, Georgia Wareham 2, Sophie Molineux 1
- Middle overs
- Tayla Vlaeminck 1, Sophie Molineux 3, Hayley Matthews 2, Tess Flintoff 4
- Death overs
- Georgia Wareham 2, Hayley Matthews 2
Rest of the squad: Milly Illingworth, Olivia Porter, Annie Wikman, Sophie Reid
How to read these teams
- SR
- The player's expected strike rate (runs per 100 balls), from recent women's T20 cricket.
- econ
- Expected runs conceded per over, shown for genuine bowlers.
- WK / OS
- Wicketkeeper / overseas player.
- Overs
- Overs each bowler gets in each phase: the best death bowlers bowl overs 17–20 (2 each at most), then the powerplay and middle overs are filled, with no one bowling more than 4. Part-timers appear when the XI runs out of genuine bowlers.
How the predictions are made
- Player ratings. Every player is rated from 496,147 balls of women's T20 cricket over the last 4 years (2,192 matches). Recent matches and stronger competitions count for more, and players with only a few matches are treated as close to average until they've shown otherwise.
- Team ratings. Each squad's best XI is picked and rated as described above. Players only available for part of the season are left out of the matches they'll miss.
- Matches. Each team's score is drawn at random around the average Women's Big Bash League first-innings score (155), moved up by its batting rating and down by the opposition's bowling rating, with a small home advantage. About 5% of matches are washed out (1 point each).
- The season. All 40 league fixtures are played, with the 8 already played kept at their real results, then the finals. That's repeated 20,000 times.
- What it doesn't know. Grounds and conditions, form from this season beyond results already in, team news after the update date, and players' international call-ups that haven't been announced.
These are statistical predictions for interest, not betting advice. See the Women's Big Bash League page for fixtures, squads and standings.